aftershock: :
Typically
refers to any earthquake that occurs near (in space
and time) and after a larger earthquake, which in this
instance would be called the
mainshock. Recent synonym:
triggered earthquake
Akaike information criterion (AIC):
measure of a model's goodness of fit to a
dataset; this measure explicitly accounts for the
number of
degrees of freedom. A
smaller AIC value is preferable.
artifact:
a mistaken
perception of an observation caused by an error in
analysis or interpretation rather than by some
inherent property of the observation
autocorrelation function:
Describes the similarity of observations as a
function of the time (or distance, or any other
measure of difference) between them
b-value:
unitless measure of
relative frequency of small and large earthquakes;
specifically, the negative of the slope of the line on
a log-linear plot of earthquake
magnitude versus cumulative
number of events; see also
Gutenberg-Richter relation
background earthquake:
Typically refers to an earthquake that has not been
triggered by another; thought to be the result of
tectonic loading. Alternatively, in seismic hazard
assessment, may refer to an earthquake not associated
with a particular fault
Bath's relation:
describes the
size of the largest expected
aftershock in an earthquake
sequence (generally thought to be ~1.2 magnitude units
smaller than the
mainshock)
Brownian passage time:
The name used in seismic hazard assessment to
denote the inverse Gaussian distribution, a continuous
probability distribution used to model times between
earthquakes in a given sequence
centroid:
point inside the
earth that represents the center of moment released
during an earthquake (analogous to center of mass)
centroid time:
time at which
an earthquake had released half its energy
completeness (magnitude of completeness,
completeness magnitude):
the minimum magnitude above which it is
thought that all earthquakes are reliably recorded
conditional intensity:
function that uniquely characterizes a
point process,
gives the normalized probability that one event will
occur in the next instant conditional on the history
of the process so far
confidence interval:
an
interval about an estimate or a measurement with which
one quantifies the belief in the estimate or
measurement; e.g., the 95% confidence interval for a
measurement is the range within which one is 95%
confident the true value lies
Coulomb stress:
Linear
combination of normal and shear
stress, commonly used
to describe/explain spatial patterns of earthquake
triggeringdecluster:
To remove
aftershocks or,
more generally, to denote which earthquakes are
mainshocks and
which are aftershocks; declustering may be
probabilistic, i.e., one might say that there is a 25%
chance that Eqk A was an aftershock of Eqk B
decluster: To remove
aftershocks or, more
generally, to denote which earthquakes are
mainshocks and which are
aftershocks; declustering may be probabilistic, i.e.,
one might say that there is a 25% chance that Eqk A
was an aftershock of Eqk B
degree of freedom:
commonly
used as synonymous with adjustable model parameter;
the number of degrees of freedom is the number of
parameters that need to be known before the parameter
vector is fully determined; an adjustable variable
that may be used to describe a dataset
deterministic:
not
affected by a
random component; a
deterministic system is exactly predictable if initial
conditions and current state are known
earthquake catalog:
list of
earthquakes and their properties (e.g.,
origin time,
hypocenter,
magnitude, etc.)
earthquake predictability:
the extent to which different elements of the
earthquake system are predictable
earthquake sequence:
generic
term used to describe a set of earthquakes that have
been grouped somehow, usually due to their proximity
in time and space
elastic rebound:
theory that
suggests stresses in
the crust build up slowly until they exceed rock
strength, at which point an earthquake occurs and
releases part or all of the accumulated stress
epicenter:
point on the
surface of the earth below which an earthquake began
(usually specified by latitude and longitude); the
projection of the
hypocenter to the
surface
epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS):
Well-studied statistical model, based on
ideas from epidemiology, that is often used to analyze
earthquake data; in this model, seismicity is
considered as the sum of
"background" earthquakes
thought to be caused by tectonic loading and
"triggered" earthquakes, thought to be caused by stress transfer.
Alternatively known as epidemic type earthquake
sequence (ETES) model
ergodic:
refers to a system
that has only a limited state space and therefore at
any time is in a state similar to one in which it has
been before; alternatively, used to describe a system
in which any sample of sufficient size is equally
representative of the whole
finite source model:
typically used to describe an earthquake rupture
model that considers a gridded representation of the
rupture plane or rupture volume; properties such as
total slip are assigned to or estimated in each patch
of the rupture plane
focal mechanism:
construct for representing the geometry of an
earthquake as an infinitesimal planar fault upon which
slip has occurred; defined by its strike (angle
between map-view representation of the fault plane and
North), dip (angle between in-plane representation of
the fault plane and the surface of the earth), and
rake (the direction the hanging wall moves during
rupture, measured relative to strike)
foreshock:
Typically
refers to any earthquake that occurs near (in space
and time) and before a larger earthquake, which in
this instance would be called the
mainshock. Recent
synonym: triggering earthquake
fractal:
A
deterministic
or
stochastic
mathematical object that is defined by its exact or
statistical self-similarity at all scales. Informally,
it often refers to a rough or fragmented geometrical
shape which can be subdivided into parts which look
approximately the same as the original shape. A
fractal has a fractal dimension that is larger than
its topological dimension but less than the dimension
of the space it occupies.
fractal dimension:
a
statistical quantity that gives an indication of how
completely a
fractal appears to
fill space, as one zooms down to finer and finer
scales
Gutenberg-Richter relation:
describes the exponential distribution of
earthquake
magnitudes; usually
written log10 N = a - bM,
where N is the number of earthquakes with
magnitude greater than or equal to M,
a and b are the ordinate intercept
and slope, respectively, of the line that relates
M and log10 N
historical catalog:
earthquake catalog that includes information
about earthquakes that were not recorded by
seismographs; the earthquake parameters have often
been estimated from written accounts of shaking
duration, observed damage, etc.
hypocenter:
point inside
the earth at which an earthquake began (usually
specified by latitude, longitude, and depth)
instrumental catalog:
earthquake catalog that only includes
information about earthquakes that were recorded by
seismographs
intensity:
a measure at
a particular location of an earthquake's effect (i.e.,
in terms of shaking) on objects at this location
Kolmogorov-Smirnov test:
a statistical test used to compare a sample with
a known distribution (one-sample K-S test) or to
compare two samples (two sample K-S test). In the
one-sample test, one wants to know if it is reasonable
to believe that the sample comes from the specified
distribution; in the two-sample test, one wants to
know if it is reasonable that the two samples came
from a common parent distribution
local magnitude:
Generic
magnitude
originally based on the Richter scale in southern
California, usually derived from the maximum amplitude
(Amax) recorded on a seismogram (often
proportional to log10Amax)
lognormal distribution:
Continuous probability distribution used to
model times between earthquakes in a given sequence
magnitude:
A measure of
the size of an earthquake; see also
local magnitude,
moment magnitude
mainshock:
Typically refers to any large or damaging earthquake,
or the largest earthquake in an earthquake sequence
Markov model:
a
stochastic model
in which the probability distribution of the next
system state depends only on the present system state,
sometimes called a memoryless model
maximum likelihood:
Likelihood
is the probability of a model parameter value given an
observation, and maximum likelihood is a method for
estimating model parameter vales based on maximizing
the likelihood.
mean (average):
The sum of the
observations in a sample divided by the number of
observations. Also known as arithmetic mean.
median: a. (discrete sample) the
middle observation of an ordered sample with an odd
number of elements; the mean of the two middle
observations of an ordered sample with an even number
of elements, b. (continuous sample) the value above
which 50% of the sample falls.
moment magnitude:
Measure of the size of the earthquake derived
from its
seismic moment, advantageous because this scale does not saturate.
On the other hand, it is difficult to measure seismic
moment (and therefore moment magnitude) for small
earthquakes
Monte Carlo:
Typically refers
to a simulation based on drawing
random numbers
Omori-Utsu relation:
describes
the temporal evolution of an
aftershock
sequence, or the average temporal behavior of many
aftershock sequences, usually characterized as a
exponential reduction in occurrence rate in the wake
of a large earthquake; alternatively known as the
modified-Omori relation and usually written
n(t) = k(t +
c)-p, where n(t) is the rate of
aftershocks at time t after the
mainshock,
k, c, and p are constants.
c is sometimes considered to be a time delay
before the exponential fall-off.
origin time:
time at which an
earthquake began
outlier:
a datum that is
extremely different from a similarly collected
population of data, often disregarded in analysis as
it is considered not to be representative of the
population
p-value:
the probability
that a measure at least as extreme as the observed
measure would be observed under the null hypothesis. A
small p-value is indicative that the null hypothesis
is incorrect; in this situation, one often states that
the observed measure is significant. For example, the
p-value that
Paul the Octopus
could correctly predict the winner of seven
consecutive German football matches and the World Cup
final, given the null hypothesis that he was guessing
randomly, is 0.58 = 0.00390625 (or 1 in
256).
paleoseismology:
study of
historical earthquakes typically conducted by
examining field observations of very old offsets,
often performed by digging trenches and inferring
information regarding pre-historic earthquakes from
sediment records
point process:
a
type of
stochastic
model that defines probabilistic rules for the
occurrence of points (i.e., earthquakes) in time
and/or space. A marked point process also assigns
a mark, or intensity, (i.e.,
magnitude) to
each point.
point source:
simplest model of an earthquake, in which
the event is considered to have occurred at a
particular point in the earth, usually only
appropriate for very small events
Poisson distribution:
Discrete probability distribution often used
to model the number of earthquake occurring within
a given time interval
random:
unordered, without
pattern
rate-and-state friction:
framework in which to understand how
frictional processes work in the context of
earthquakes; based on laboratory experiments in
which static and dynamic friction were observed to
vary with hold time and sliding velocity,
respectively
runs test:
non-parametric statistical test used to
check the
randomness of a
sequence of data or whether the observations of a
two valued data sequence are mutually independent
seismic moment:
One
measure of the size of an earthquake, based on
estimated rupture area, average slip, and the
average rigidity over the rupture area; in
practice, usually obtained from analyzing
seismograms
seismicity rate: Typically, the
number of earthquakes in a specified interval of
space-time-magnitude, normalized by the length of
the time interval. The background seismicity rate
is simply the rate of
background earthquakes.
slip distribution:
amount
of displacement in space and/or time for a
particular earthquake, usually specified on a
gridded fault representation
spline:
a piecewise
polynomial function often used for interpolation
or smoothing of data
standard deviation:
common
measure of a data set's dispersion—i.e., how far
do data points fall from the average data point?;
square root of a data set's
variance
stationary:
unchanging; a
point process is said to be stationary if its
joint probability distribution doesn't change
under a translation in space or time
stochastic:
random; a stochastic model may have a random component
in addition to underlying
deterministic
components.
stress:
a measure of
force per unit area, typically thought to control
earthquake occurrence; stress is accumulated via
loading by plate tectonics and released by
deformation
synthetic earthquake catalog:
an
earthquake catalog
generated by a computer algorithm (as opposed to
one based on actual earthquakes)
time-dependent/time-independent:
refers to a process that either does
(time-dependent) or does not change (-independent)
through time (terms time-varying and
time-invariant may be preferred to reduce
ambiguity)
type I error/type II error:
errors to be avoided in statistical
hypothesis testing, also known as false positive
and false negative, respecticely. A Type I
error occurs when a correct null hypothesis is
rejected, and a Type II error occurs when an
incorrect null hypothesis is not rejected.
triggered earthquake:
an earthquake that is thought to have been
caused by a previous earthquake
variance:
measure of a
data set's dispersion; average of the squared
deviation of each data point from the sample
mean
References
Gutenberg, B. & C.F. Richter,1954.
Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena,
2nd ed. (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University
Press, 1954), pp 17–19 ("Frequency and energy of
earthquakes").
Utsu,
T., 1961. A statistical study on the occurrence of
aftershocks, Geophys. Mag. 30 (1961), pp.
521–605.